Monday, 6 June 2016

IN OR OUT? THAT IS THE QUESTION


The big problem with the question is that both sides have very good and valid arguments but many of them are speculation. Telling the future is always problematical and who knows where we will end up whether we stay in or leave the Union. To really understand the ramifications of of leaving one would have to be an economist, an accountant, an entrepreneur, a big business man, a university professor and probably a politician too, all rolled into one. In other words the subject is too complicated for most people to fully comprehend. Listen to the good ones on both sides and they will convince you that their arguments are the only valid ones, but they are not, because actually, in many ways, both are correct.

The elephant in the room is the change the referendum will make to the British political system. The funny thing is, the politicians themselves don't seem to see it. The Conservative party is totally riven and the two sides can no longer be polite to each other. They will never forgive each other. There is a good argument to be made for the Conservatives to split into two or more parties. It's really hard to see how they can possibly come together again after the referendum. They are being so vitriolic about each other I think it would be a miracle for everything to settle down and get back to where it was before. The Graylings of this world who state that if they (Brexit) win, Cameron can remain party leader, are living in cloud and cuckoo land. Conservative backbenchers are probably the most disloyal group of men and women in Parliament and are already plotting his downfall win or lose.

The Labour party is being led by a reluctant leader, reluctant to be leader, really reluctant about the EU, reluctant about most things in Britain till he was surprisingly elected as leader. He was the ultimate protester about everything his own party did, let alone the opposition, for all the years he's been in Parliament. The problem with Corbyn is that he was elected with an overwhelming majority that even caught fellow parliamentary colleagues by surprise. This makes it very difficult to overthrow him which is what a lot of them would like to do. His policies and general demeanor seem to make him unelectable yet never has the Labour party been in such a good position to take advantage of Tory disarray. They will probably split and be in the political wilderness for at least a decade or even longer. Under normal circumstances Labour should be able to take advantage and yet that looks highly unlikely.

Poor old Lib Dems made the fatal mistake of joining a coalition with the Tories and have wiped themselves off the political map. They should try to take advantage of the current political disarray and rebuild, but can they? The problem with them is that they support staying in the EU and whichever way the vote goes the country will be split as I'm sure it will be a very close run thing, so at least half of the people who supported them in the past won't do so again.

That leaves the marginal parties, UKIP, British Nationals etc. and what chance any of them gaining enough support to govern. I don't think so. So, step forth the elephant and change British politics for ever. Supporters of Brexit also seem to forget that if they win it is highly probable that Scotland will hold another referendum and this time the SNP will win leading to the break up of the United Kingdom. Is that what they want? Bumbling buffoon Johnson dismisses that claim with an imperious wave of his hand. If that happens how can we hold him and his mates to account? The break up of the UK would be one of the greatest tragedies ever to befall the country and an indelible stain on the Brexiter escutcheon, but they don't seem to care.